| Provided by our strategic partner Gradient Investments Gradient Investments Weekly Talking Points 05/17/2021 All data is for the week ended May 14, 2021. Stocks For the first quarter (with 91% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 86% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise. If that ratio holds, it will mark the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.1 Stocks were lower across the board last week after the U.S. inflation rate was reported higher than expectations and retail sales were just flat vs. the prior month. The S&P 500 declined 1.35%, the Russell 2000 lost 2.04% and the NASDAQ dropped 2.32%. Overseas, the international developed markets (MSCI: EAFE) were down 1.28% while the emerging markets (MSCI: EM) declined 2.99%. Within the U.S., consumer staples and financials were the best performing sectors while consumer discretionary and technology showed the biggest declines.2 Fixed Income Interest rates rose and bond values declined with the benchmark 10-year treasury yielding 1.63%, up 3 basis points. Yield rose across all maturities on inflation worries.3 Commodities Prices have risen to record levels for lumber, copper and iron ore due to the boost in demand with consumers flush with cash and production is unable to keep up as the economy re-opens. Some grain prices are also trading at their highest prices in nearly ten years.4 Economic Data U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 4.2% from a year ago, the fastest pace in more than 12 years. Core inflation—excluding volatile food and energy prices—rose 3.0% from a year ago versus expectations for 2.3% inflation. Both rates of growth are highly influenced by the low inflation rate from a year ago.5 The consumer sentiment index fell 6.2% to 82.8 in May versus the prior month. On a year-over-year basis, the index rose 14.5%. Consumers became more cautious over the risk of rising inflation but said they would continue to increase their spending due to a) pent-up demand, b) record savings and c) expectation that jobs will be plentiful.6 Retail sales were unchanged in April from March—versus expectations for a modest 0.8% gain—after a 10.7% gain in March triggered by $1,400 stimulus checks. Sales were maintained $60 billion higher than the month of February. Year-over-year retail sales rose 51.2% and clothing sales rose 729%.7 Company News8 Union Pacific Corp. (UNP), a G50 holding, increased its dividend by 10.3%. The railroad company has paid dividends on its common stock for 122 consecutive years. Yield on the new rate is 1.88%. Shares were off 0.71% for the week.9 McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), a G50 holding, announced it is raising hourly wages for more than 36,000 of its U.S. employees by an average of 10% as it faces a labor shortage. It is also hiring 10,000 new employees in the U.S. as their dining rooms re-open. For the week shares were down 1.33%.10 Did you know … In ancient Rome doctors used an early form of electrotherapy to successfully treat neurological conditions such as epilepsy and migraines. They administered the charges by placing electric torpedo fish on the patient’s head. Sources: 1 FactSet Earnings Insight 5-14-21 2 JP Morgan Weekly Market Recap 5-17-21 3 US Treasury 4 Barron’s “Why Rising Inflation Will Continue to Boost Lumber, Copper and Steel Prices” 5-13-21 5 US Bureau of Labor Statistics 5-12-21 6 University of Michigan press release 5-14-21 7 Census Bureau 5-14-21 8 All weekly changes in company stock prices: Yahoo Finance 9 Union Pacific press release 5-14-21 10 McDonald’s press release 5-13-21 Advisory services are offered through American Retirement Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor in the State of Michigan. Insurance products and services are offered through American Retirement Solutions an affiliated company. American Retirement Advisors, Inc. and American Retirement Solutions are not affiliated with or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency. The information contained herein should in no way be construed or interpreted as a solicitation to sell or offer to sell advisory services to any residents of any State other than the State of Michigan or where otherwise legally permitted. All written content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to provide any tax or legal advice or provide the basis for any financial decisions. Moreover, this material has been derived from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness and does not purport to be a complete analysis of the materials discussed. Joseph Vitale © American Retirement Advisors, Inc. 3778 S Lapeer Rd Metamora, Michigan 48455 Ph: (810) 667-9360 Email: joe@aradvisorsinc.com Web: www.aradvisorsinc.com |